排序方式： 共有96条查询结果，搜索用时 109 毫秒
91.
用MODIS热量指数动态监测东北地区水稻延迟型冷害 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
水稻低温冷害是东北地区主要的农业气象灾害之一。与耗时、费力的传统灾情监测和调查方式相比,遥感技术能以宏观视角高效地监测灾害发生的范围及程度。为顺应立体化农业气象服务的发展趋势,探索利用Terra\Aqua MODIS反射率和地表温度数据进行水稻延迟型冷害动态监测的可能性,本文在遥感估算全天候平均气温分布、遥感识别水稻种植区及其关键生育期的基础上,构建了基于相对累积生长度日距平r AGDDa的水稻延迟型冷害指标,并开展了东北地区2000年—2012年水稻延迟型冷害动态监测的应用研究。结果表明:(1)MODIS估算的累积生长度日(MODIS_AGDD)与其对应台站估算值之间存在高度相关,除了5月上旬及9月下旬外,两者差值的多年平均值随时间变化幅度基本保持在55℃·d左右;(2)r AGDDa与其对应台站估算值的相关性比累积生长度日距平(AGDDa)的更高,采用r AGDDa指标监测东北地区水稻生长季热量条件的年际差异更有效;(3)基于MODIS_r AGDDa指标的监测结果与用气象行业标准指标(ΔT5-9)监测得到的延迟型冷害分布在众多灾害年均有较好的空间一致性,通过对比水稻减产率分布图,认为以MODIS_r AGDDa≤-5%判断水稻延迟型冷害的发生具有一定可行性;(4)分阶段统计的r AGDDa指标能反映出水稻各生育阶段的低温累积效应和高温补偿效应,可用于水稻延迟型冷害动态监测业务服务。 相似文献
92.
WANG Xiaodi LI Yongsheng ZHANG Lijuan SONG Shuaifeng PAN Tao REN Chong TAN Yulong 《地理学报(英文版)》2022,32(2):225-240
With the advent of climate change,winter temperatures have been steadily in-creasing in the middle-to-high latitudes of the world.However,we have not found a corre-sponding decrease in the number of extremely cold winters.This paper,based on Climatic Research Unit (CRU) re-analysis data,and methods of trend analysis,mutation analysis,correlation analysis,reports on the effects of Arctic warming on winter temperatures in Hei-longjiang Province,Northeast China.The results show that:(1) during the period 1961-2018,winter temperatures in the Arctic increased considerably,that is,3.5 times those of the Equator,which has led to an increasing temperature gradient between the Arctic and the Equator.An abrupt change in winter temperatures in the Arctic was observed in 2000.(2) Due to the global warming,an extremely significant warming occurred in Heilongjiang in winter,in particular,after the Arctic mutation in 2000,although there were two warm winters,more cold winters were observed and the interannual variability of winter temperature also increased.(3)Affected by the warming trend in the Arctic,the Siberian High has intensified,and both the Arctic Vortex and the Eurasian Zonal Circulation Index has weakened.This explains the de-crease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang,and why cold winters still dominate.Moreover,the increase in temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator is another reason for the decrease in winter temperatures in Heilongjiang. 相似文献
93.
Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July–August (JA) is proposed. DY is
defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes
the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated
with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established
by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed
NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout
period 1965–1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly
over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000–2007, with an average relative root mean square error of
21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage
of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965–2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the
summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%–70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over
North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer
precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.
Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421406), National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant Nos. 40631005, 40775049) and Excellent Ph. D Dissertation in Chinese Academy of Sciences 相似文献
94.
根据东北地区144个国家气象站1951—2016年的地温和土壤冻结深度资料,采用实测资料统计及统计建模推算的方法,对东北地区地温和冻结深度时空特征进行了细化分析。结果表明：东北地区地温整体由南到北逐渐降低,冻结深度逐渐增大。各层年平均地温呈向北2个纬度降低1 ℃左右,年平均最大冻结深度为向北2~3个纬度加深30 cm左右,极端最大冻结深度为向北2个纬度加深30 cm左右。地温和冻结深度与纬度关系显著,与经度和海拔也有一定相关性,但在东北北部的多年冻土区基本不受后两者影响。不同深度的地温季节特征不同,地表温度季节特征与气温一致,160 cm以下深度四季温度从高到低为秋、夏、冬、春。地表夏季与冬季温差达到33.5 ℃,而320 cm深处最热季与最冷季的温差仅为7 ℃。气候变暖使得东北地区各层地温升高、冻结深度减小、冻结期缩短,尤其在多年冻土区及其临近的高纬度季节冻土区更为显著。相对于下层土壤,地表升温最大。伊春地表升温趋势达到1.16 ℃?（10a）-1,40~320 cm土层升温趋势为0.60 ℃?（10a）-1左右,冻结深度减小、冻结期缩短趋势分别达到 23 cm?（10a）-1、8 d?（10a）-1,大幅升温不利于多年冻土的存在。 相似文献
95.
利用风云三号A星MERSI数据,基于ENVI ZOOM软件平台采用面向对象的多尺度影像分割技术,并结合监督分类技术提取云层边缘线,继而对影像进行反演处理时剔除云层覆盖区域的干扰。研究表明,与同时段彩色卫星云图进行视觉对比,分类结果较理想,该分类方法易于操作,可有效提高解译精度。 相似文献
96.